Why some experts say you shouldn't wait for mortgage rates to fall (2024)

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MoneyWatch: Managing Your Money

Why some experts say you shouldn't wait for mortgage rates to fall (2)

If you're in the market for a new home, today'smortgage rates can hinder your efforts. After all, the higher your mortgage rate, the higher your monthly payments will typically be. So, it can be difficult to find affordable housing options in today's high-rate environment.

But the good news is that there are still good housing options available. And, while waiting for a lower interest rate might seem like a smart move, some experts say doing so would be a mistake. But why wouldn't you want to wait for lower mortgage rates before you purchase a new home?

Find out how affordable your mortgage loan can be today.

Why some experts say you shouldn't wait for mortgage rates to fall

Interest rates are a common consideration among home buyers — butshould you wait until mortgage rates fall to buy? Many experts say no. Here's why.

Lower rates could lead to lower inventories and higher prices

"Buying a home is a big decision that needs careful consideration," says John Dustman, SVP, head of consumer lending and advisor banking at Axos Bank.

"One common concern among buyers relates to market conditions and how changes in interest rates impact home prices and inventory levels," says Dustman. "As most house hunters know, inventory levels in just about every community in the U.S. are very low and have been since the COVID-19 pandemic and historically low mortgage rates available in 2020 and 2021."

"Active inventory fell to levels that were a third or less than inventory levels in 2019 during the 2021 peak in demand," says Dustman. "Since then, inventory levels have increased but are still at levels equal to about 50-60% of available inventory in 2019."

Considering the low inventory levels, home prices would typically rise. However, with rates as high as they are right now, it may be keeping home values from increasing further, according to Dustman. But that may change.

"Many buyers have been waiting on the sidelines due to high rates and challenges they are facing qualifying for mortgages with high rates and home prices," says Dustman. As rates fall and these buyers on the sidelines flood the market, inventory could fall further and home prices could rise.

That's why, generally speaking, the best time to buy a home is when rates are higher and demand is lower, according to Dustman.

Find the best mortgage loan offer for you online now.

You could miss out on your dream home if you wait too long

It can be difficult to find your dream home with inventories low across most housing markets nationwide. However, if you wait too long, you could miss out entirely.

"People are always going to need to buy homes — whether they are upsizing with a growing family, downsizing as empty nesters, moving for a job or are simply ready to take the next step in their life's journey and become a homeowner for the first time," says Austin Niemiec, chief revenue officer for Rocket Mortgage.

"Maybe someone's dream home becomes available and it doesn't coincide with the most favorable rate environment, but waiting for rates to drop could mean missing out on that perfect opportunity," says Niemiec. "As long as they can comfortably afford the payment now, the homebuyer always has the chance to refinance if rates drop in the future to get a better monthly payment."

It's hard to time the market

"Trying to time the homebuying market and rates is difficult because no one has a 100% accurate crystal ball to predict what conditions will look like even in a few months from now," says Bob Driscoll, SVP and director of residential lending at Rockland Trust Bank. "The 'perfect time' to buy a home is a myth."

"Instead, prospective homebuyers should buy a home on a timeline that works best for their life and future plans," says Driscoll. "Aligning your home purchase with your goals and values will certainly have a better return on your investment than waiting around for rates to fall."

Learn more about your mortgage options now.

The bottom line

Interest rates could drop in the future, but you may not want to wait for that to happen to buy a home. If you wait for rates to fall, you could face higher home prices or miss out on your dream home. Rather than waiting for rates to fall, it may be a wise choice to purchase your home now and consider refinancing later.

Joshua Rodriguez

Joshua Rodriguez is a personal finance and investing writer with a passion for his craft. When he's not working, he enjoys time with his wife, two kids and two dogs.

Why some experts say you shouldn't wait for mortgage rates to fall (2024)

FAQs

Why some experts say you shouldn't wait for mortgage rates to fall? ›

If you wait for rates to fall, you could face higher home prices or miss out on your dream home. Rather than waiting for rates to fall, it may be a wise choice to purchase your home now and consider refinancing later.

Why shouldn't you wait for mortgage rates to drop? ›

Home Prices May Rise While You Wait to Buy

Much of that home price appreciation can be attributed to heightened demand when mortgage rates were at record lows in 2020 and 2021. But even in 2022 and 2023, when mortgage rates began their relentless climb, home prices didn't drop.

Will mortgage rates ever go down to 3 again? ›

In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future.

How many buyers are waiting for rates to drop? ›

In a recent poll, 71% of potential first-time homebuyers said they won't enter the market until interest rates drop. Prospective homeowners sit at an impasse. Mortgage rates are not particularly high, at least in a historical sense: Roughly 7.5%, on a 30-year fixed-rate loan.

Will mortgage interest rates go down in 2024? ›

Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year. In April 2024, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year. Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked last year, but it has to slow further before rates can continue trending down.

Will mortgage rates ever go below 5%? ›

But until the Fed sees evidence of slowing economic growth, interest rates will stay higher for longer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025.

Is it better to wait for interest rates to go down? ›

If you wait for rates to fall, you could face higher home prices or miss out on your dream home. Rather than waiting for rates to fall, it may be a wise choice to purchase your home now and consider refinancing later.

How low will mortgage rates go in 2025? ›

Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."

Will interest rates ever go back to 4 percent? ›

If those projections remain and the Fed begins to lower its key rate, mortgage rates will presumably follow suit. Sunbury predicts the Fed will cut rates by between 100 to 125 basis points starting in May or June of 2024. “This would bring the policy rate to 4% to 4.25%,” Sunbury explains.

What is the interest rate forecast for the next 5 years? ›

Trading Economics offers a more optimistic outlook, predicting a rise to 5% in 2023 before falling to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025. This forecast is supported by Morningstar's analysis, which projects rates between 3.75% and 4%.

Should I buy a house now or wait for a recession? ›

And as you might imagine, recessions are a risky time to buy a home. If you lose your job, for example, a lender will be much less likely to approve your loan application. Even if a recession doesn't affect you directly, if your area is hard-hit, that could have a serious effect on the local real estate market.

When should you do a price drop on a house? ›

The best time to reduce a house's price

If you decide to reduce the price of your home, experts agree you should do it relatively quickly, ideally within two weeks of initially listing it for sale. That's especially true with inventory as low as it is right now.

What happens if rates drop before closing? ›

If rates go down prior to your loan closing and you want to take advantage of a lower rate, you may be able to pay a fee and relock at the lower interest rate. This is called “repricing” your loan. Before you can close on your loan, you'll need to lock in a final interest rate.

Where will mortgage rates be in 2026? ›

Adding to the chorus of potential decline is Statista's forecast, which suggests a 1.6% drop in the 30-year fixed rate by 2026. Their prediction rests on the assumption that the 10-year treasury constant maturity rate will also decline, which has historically correlated with movements in mortgage rates.

What is the current interest rate? ›

Today's national 30-year mortgage interest rate trends

On Monday, June 03, 2024, the current average interest rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.17%, increasing 9 basis points over the last seven days.

Will my mortgage go up in 2024? ›

Mortgage rates can vary greatly depending on the type of loan, the lender, and the current market conditions. You'll likely see increases in mortgage payments in 2024 – whether you're refinancing to a new deal or defaulting to your bank's standard variable rate (SVR) - because interest rates have gone up.

What will happen if mortgage rates drop? ›

When mortgage rates begin to drop, buying a home typically becomes more affordable. "Should rate cuts occur in 2024, homebuyers may qualify for larger loan amounts or find that their monthly payments are more manageable," says Neil Christiansen, branch manager and certified mortgage advisor with Churchill Mortgage.

Why is it bad to keep interest rates low? ›

The Fed lowers interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth, as lower financing costs can encourage borrowing and investing. However, when rates are too low, they can spur excessive growth and subsequent inflation, reducing purchasing power and undermining the sustainability of the economic expansion.

Will my mortgage go down if interest rates go down? ›

A mortgage with a fixed interest rate means it won't be affected when the base rate goes up. If the base rate goes down, you won't pay any less, however. A variable-rate mortgage. You are likely to be placed onto a SVR mortgage when your mortgage deal comes to an end.

What if mortgage rates go down before closing? ›

If rates go down prior to your loan closing and you want to take advantage of a lower rate, you may be able to pay a fee and relock at the lower interest rate. This is called “repricing” your loan. Before you can close on your loan, you'll need to lock in a final interest rate.

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