Venture Capital Outlook 2024 | Nixon Peabody LLP (2024)

U.S. venture capital (“VC”) investing is expected to increase, according to the 2024 U.S. Venture Capital Outlook recently published by Pitchbook, a financial data and software company

Following a turbulent 2023, Pitchbook makes several positive projections for 2024:

  • Positive economic signals in 2023 indicate a comeback in IPOs in 2024.
  • U.S. VC fundraising is expected to increase, making it stronger than 2023 and comparable with 2020 figures.
  • The number of insider-led rounds as a proportion of all U.S. VC deals will be on par with or exceed the 2023 annual level.
  • Flat or declining interest rates in 2024 will lead to an increase in U.S. VC deal activity with nontraditional VC investor participation.

The turbulence of 2023 included the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which set off anxiety and skepticism among investors. After the initial shock, however, the SVB collapse led to little disruption throughout the year. Now, as public markets begin to restabilize, increased demand for IPOs should create a realistic pathway for worthy VC-backed startups and corresponding liquidity for investors.

Pitchbook suspects a market reset is in process, which will boost this trajectory throughout 2024. Financial markets had high-interest rates and rapid inflation over the past year, both of which played a major factor in hindering market activity. Key indicators such as deal flow, exit opportunities, and regulatory changes provide insights into the potential for a rebound. While there are insufficient indicators to support an immediate significant rebound, an interest rate decline in 2024 and a slowdown of inflation should create a less risky environment for early and late-stage investors and ultimately drive dealmaking.

Insider-led funding rounds have become increasingly common. While this can result in higher valuations and more control for existing investors, it raises concerns about inflated valuations (due to a lack of true third-party market pricing) and limited influence for new investors and stakeholders (potentially resulting in stagnant strategic decision-making).

Importantly, dry powder, the amount of committed but unspent capital within the investment fund community, remains high in 2024. According to Pitchbook, more than 4,000 funds have been raised since the start of 2020. With substantial capital available, we expect to see significant pressure to deploy capital and shed the risk-averse approach of 2023.

PitchBook predicts that if interest rates remain flat or decline in 2024, not only will VC dealmaking increase, but we will see an increase in nontraditional VC investor participation. Since 2022, there has been a sharp decline of nontraditional investors in the VC space, which ran concurrently with the spike in interest rates that began in March 2022. If we see interest rates trending down, signs point to a potential drive in nontraditional investors seeking higher returns through alternative spaces, such as VC.

Venture Capital Outlook 2024 | Nixon Peabody LLP (2024)

FAQs

Is it hard to get into venture capital? ›

Jobs in Venture Capital are notoriously hard to land. They don't come by often, and they are seldom advertised—except in large VC firms, mainly for entry-level positions. Aspiring VCs often don't understand Venture Capital well enough to apply at the right type of firm or one that is interested in their skillset.

What is the biggest secret in venture capital? ›

Peter Thiel in Zero to One: > The biggest secret in venture capital is that the best investment in a successful fund equals or outperforms the entire rest of the fund combined.

How long is venture capital? ›

Venture capital houses typically hold their investments for between five and seven years, at which point the business will either be floated on the stock exchange, acquired by a multinational corporation or another investor such as a private equity house.

How to calculate venture capital returns? ›

Take the difference between the current value of the investment and the original beginning value, divide it by the original value and multiply the result by 100. If a VC fund makes multiple investments at different times, the calculation gets more challenging, but it still can be done with some basic math.

Does venture capital pay well in 2024? ›

While ZipRecruiter is seeing annual salaries as high as $199,000 and as low as $34,000, the majority of Venture Capital salaries currently range between $71,500 (25th percentile) to $119,500 (75th percentile) with top earners (90th percentile) making $165,500 annually across the United States.

What are the 4 C's of venture capital? ›

Let's not invite that risk, and instead undertake conviction, compliance, confidence and consequences as an industry. It can not only help us preserve the best parts of the current industry, but also lead to better investments and a healthier innovation sector.

What are the 4 P's of venture capital? ›

Generally, with fund manager selection, one should consider the 4 Ps: philosophy, process, people, and performance.

Can you get rich as a venture capitalist? ›

If you're successful, you will build a reputation. This, in turn, will lead to better and higher-profile deals. From there, you can get a job at a venture capital firm, where you might earn a salary of $1 million per year.

How much do VC firms pay? ›

Annual salary and bonuses differ broadly in this field depending on the size of the VC firm and its specialization. In general, VC associates can expect an annual salary of $60,000 to $133,000. 1 With a bonus, which is typically a percentage of salary, the overall compensation can be much higher.

How old is the average venture capitalist? ›

The average age of a senior associate at a venture capital (VC) firm can vary depending on the specific firm and the individual's career path. In general, however, a senior associate at a VC firm is likely to be in their late 20s or early 30s.

What is the 5 year rule for VCT? ›

Investors must hold VCT shares for at least five years to benefit from tax relief (if shares are sold before then, any upfront income tax relief that has been claimed must be repaid).

What is a good return for venture capital? ›

The TLDR; seed investors shoot for a 100x return; Series A investors need an investment to return 10x to 15x and later stage investors aim for 3x to 5x multiple of money. This translates into portfolio returns from 20% to 35% targeted IRRs.

What is a good IRR in VC? ›

According to research by Industry Ventures on historical venture returns, GPs should target an IRR of at least 30% when investing at the seed stage. Industry Ventures suggests targeting an IRR of 20% for later stages, given that those investments are generally less risky.

Do VC firms beat the market? ›

Several articles and research papers have been published on the PME and the comparison of VC versus public stock performance. These studies often show that top-tier Venture Capital funds outperform public markets, while the median or average VC fund may underperform.

Is getting a VC job hard? ›

Many try, and many fail. It can take over a year to find a VC job, even if you have good banking experience, says the ex-Goldman associate.

How prestigious is venture capital? ›

Venture capital is one of the most prestigious and sought-after types of financial investment. The idea of high returns, with the potential to back potentially world-changing companies and technologies, appeals to many investors.

Does venture capital pay well? ›

Venture Capital Associate Salary and Bonus Levels

At the large VC firms, Pre-MBA Associates earn $150K to $200K USD in base salary + bonus, while Post-MBA Senior Associates might earn closer to $200K to $250K. If you're at a smaller/newer firm or outside major financial centers, expect lower compensation.

Can you go straight into venture capital? ›

It's very difficult to break into venture capital directly out of undergrad, and even if you have the background for it – i.e., you went to Stanford or Berkeley, majored in CS, and completed multiple startup and finance internships – it's not necessarily a great idea to do it.

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