UK NBP Natural Gas Futures (2024)

FAQs

What is the NBP gas price forecast? ›

What is UK NBP? The UK NBP gas market is Europe's longest-established spot-traded natural gas market, in operation since the late 1990s. The price of UK NBP is widely used as an indicator for Europe's wholesale gas market alongside the more recent, but now more liquid, Dutch TTF.

UK Natural Gas Futures is a national benchmark price. Contracts are for physical delivery through the transfer of rights in respect of Natural Gas at the National Balancing Point (NBP) Virtual Trading Point, operated by National Grid, the transmissions system operator in the UK.

Key Points: Production exceeds 102 Bcf/d, outpacing demand growth expectations. Inventories 22% above 10-year average despite recent heatwaves. August 2024 futures drop to $2.43 from $3.19 high.

According to the March 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $6.67 per Mcf in 2022 and $2.63 per Mcf in 2023. The sameforecast shows an average Henry Hub spot price of $2.36 per Mcf in 2024 and $3.06 per Mcf in 2025 (nominal prices).

“To meet our 2024 Henry Hub annual price average of $2.8 per MMBtu, prices are set to average at $3.4 per MMBtu over the remainder of the year,” they said. “We continue to expect above-average temperatures for the vast majority of the U.S. in Q3 2024, which will support higher demand for natural gas over that period.

NBP – National balancing point. NDM - Non-daily metered. NGP - National Grid Property. NGSE - Network gas supply emergencies.

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The National Balancing Point, commonly referred to as the NBP, is a virtual trading location for the sale and purchase and exchange of natural gas in the United Kingdom. It is the pricing and delivery point for the ICE Futures Europe (IntercontinentalExchange) natural gas futures contract.

The key drivers behind falling prices have been a mild winter, ongoing demand weakness and a decline in coal & carbon prices which set power sector switching range levels. The forward market is pricing in a lower CSP range through 2024 consistent with lower coal & carbon forwards.

What is the current UK natural gas price? ›

UK gas price: 64p/therm.

The average price of gas under the direct debit cap will fall to 5.5 p/kWh in July 2024, the average price of electricity will fall to 22.4 p/kWh. Average standing charges under this cap will remain around current levels.

Although we forecast an increase in natural gas prices for the summer months as storage inventories rise by less than the five-year average, we expect inventories will remain above the five-year average and keep prices below $3.00/MMBtu on average in 3Q24, similar to the $2.59/MMBtu average in 3Q23.

What Causes Volatility In Natural Gas Prices? Major factors affecting volatility in gas markets include: Weather Changes: Weather is a strong determinant of short-term demand. Unexpected, prolonged, or severe changes in weather can cause fluctuations in the amount of natural gas that is demanded by end users.

We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024. In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports).

In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.

Gasoline price changes in California are primarily driven by the cost of global crude oil and significant unplanned refinery outages.