UK, Japan only tip of iceberg, 18 other countries at risk of recession (2024)

FAQs

UK, Japan only tip of iceberg, 18 other countries at risk of recession? ›

MANY COUNTRIES AT RISK OF SLIPPING INTO RECESSION IN Q4

According to the Bundesbank, Germany is also likely in recession. After a rapid series of interest rate increases to tame inflation, the central banks of the US, UK, and eurozone have paused rate hikes for now, given declines in the regions' respective consumer price indices from their 2022 peaks.

In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren't sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. Japan's economy contracted at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, causing it to lose its position as the world's third-largest economy to Germany.

Countries most affected

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports in its International Economics Bulletin that Ukraine, as well as Argentina and Jamaica, were the countries most deeply affected by the crisis.

Japan has avoided falling into a technical recession after its official economic growth figures were revised. The revised data shows gross domestic product (GDP) was 0.4% higher in the last three months of 2023 compared to a year earlier.

HONG KONG -- New economic forecasts for China show Beijing's efforts to promote an optimistic narrative have not shaken predictions of a long-term slowdown, with the growth rate seen sinking well below 5%.

Also in 2022, the government reported that gross domestic product — the economy's output of goods and services — had fallen for two straight quarters, a long-time rule of thumb that has nearly always accompanied a recession. Then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said the U.S. economy was in recession that month.

The United States upholds its status as the major global economy and richest country, steadfastly preserving its pinnacle position from 1960 to 2023. Its economy boasts remarkable diversity, propelled by important sectors, including services, manufacturing, finance, and technology.

Is Canada in a recession? ›

The total size of the Canadian economy has continued to grow—narrowly avoiding the consecutive headline GDP declines that would normally qualify as a “recession” in the aftermath of surging inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes by the BoC in 2022-23.

Following a recession in 2023, economic activity in Germany is expected to stagnate in 2024. Domestic demand is set to pick up slowly in 2024 and 2025, as real wage growth resumes. However, investment is projected to remain well below pre-pandemic levels, constrained by continued high financing costs.

China confident of 5% growth in 2024

China is on track to achieve its growth target of 5% in 2024. That was the message from leaders at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting of the New Champions (AMNC) in Dalian.

As expected, French GDP stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2023 (0% quarter-on-quarter), following stagnation in the third quarter (figures revised upwards from -0.1 to 0%). France therefore narrowly avoids a technical recession, but the details are weak. Over 2023, GDP growth was 0.9%, compared with 2.5% in 2022.

An analysis of data by the Conference Board shows that Argentina, together with "failed states" Libya and Syria, is the country which posted the most years of negative GDP growth since 1951.

“Middle-income countries in Latin America, as well as low-income countries in Africa, will register some of the sharpest slowdowns this year,” says UNCTAD, which adds that countries that were showing signs of debt distress before Covid are taking some of the biggest hits (Zambia, Suriname, Sri Lanka) with climate ...

Recession chances remain elevated heading into the final half of 2024. July 9, 2024, at 3:47 p.m. There are warning signs that the economy could slow down in the second half of 2024. The U.S. economy is on relatively solid footing heading into the second half of 2024.