The Time Bomb Butterfly Versus Vertical Spread (2024)

Mark Fenton wrote an article about the Time Bomb Butterfly. Mark said “one of the best butterfly strategies is the time bomb butterfly.” There isn't one best strategy as each strategy has its pros and cons. The time bomb butterfly suffers from a very low probability of profit and negative expected return. I wondered what other strategy could you use instead of a time bomb butterfly that would have similar performance?

How about an Out-of-the-money Vertical Spread?

Vertical spreads are very flexible strategies. You can place them in-the-money and have a higher probability of making money with lower returns or you can place them out-of-the-money with a lower probability and higher return. Let's see how an out-of-the-money vertical spread compares to the time bomb butterfly.

The Trades

Mark went back to Oct 22, 2015 and bought a 720/730/740 GOOG butterfly. My prices in OptionVue were $0.37 per butterfly. Here's what it looks like in the OptionVue Matrix:

The Time Bomb Butterfly Versus Vertical Spread (1)

I decided to use similar strikes for the vertical spread, using the 720/730 Call Debit spread for $112:

The Time Bomb Butterfly Versus Vertical Spread (2)

One problem I see is the vertical spread is three times the cost. It's still not expensive, but let's triple the size of the time bomb butterfly to compare apples to apples.

The Time Bomb Butterfly Versus Vertical Spread (3)

Now we can compare the two trades as they are nearly the same debit. The vertical spread has twice the positive delta, three times the negative theta and six times the positive vega. What does that all mean? Let's look at the risk chart of the two trades to get an idea:

The Time Bomb Butterfly Versus Vertical Spread (4)

Notice that in 15-days (T+15) both trades have nearly the exact same profit up until GOOG reaches $710. As GOOG price goes above $710, the Vertical Spread keeps rising while the butterfly is losing profits.

Probability of Profit and Expected Return

In 15-days, the time bomb butterfly has a probability of profit of 27% and an expected return of -$8. The Vertical Spread has a probability of profit of 27% and an expected return of +$23.

At expiration, the time bomb butterfly has a probability of profit of 5% and an expected return of -$9. The Vertical Spread has a probability of profit of 15% and an expected return of +$22.

Which trade is better?

Clearly the vertical spread has advantages and has a positive expectancy. The time bomb butterfly is pure speculation with a negative expected return; however, if you are correct and hit the lottery (ie..the top of the butterfly) returns are four times higher. That payoff comes with the price of being extremely unlikely to occur.

I personally would choose the vertical spread in most situations. The Time Bomb Butterfly's negative expectancy is not appealing to me.

Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments below.

The Time Bomb Butterfly Versus Vertical Spread (2024)

FAQs

What is the 1 3 2 option strategy? ›

The 1-3-2 structure supposedly appears as a tree. The strategy profits from a small increase in the price of the underlying asset and maxes when the underlying closes at the middle option strike price at options expiration. Maximum profit equals middle strike minus lower strike minus the premium.

Is butterfly spread a vertical spread? ›

A butterfly combines a long vertical spread1 and a short vertical spread, assuming the following conditions: The options are the same type (all calls or all puts). Each vertical spread has the same distance between strikes.

What is the OTM butterfly strategy? ›

OTM Butterfly Spreads

The trade can show a profit provided that the stock doesn't move too far in either direction. An OTM butterfly is built the same way as a neutral butterfly: by buying one call, selling two calls at a higher strike price, and buying one more call option at a higher strike price.

What are the disadvantages of the butterfly spread? ›

The primary disadvantage of the butterfly spread is the possibility that the market could move sharply in either direction to incur a loss on the position, and the potential trading costs versus the limited profit potential (see sidebar).

What is the 5 3 1 trading strategy? ›

Clear guidelines: The 5-3-1 strategy provides clear and straightforward guidelines for traders. The principles of choosing five currency pairs, developing three trading strategies, and selecting one specific time of day offer a structured approach, reducing ambiguity and enhancing decision-making.

What is the least riskiest option strategy? ›

The safest option strategy is one that involves limited risk, such as buying protective puts or employing conservative covered call writing. Selling cash-secured puts stands as the most secure strategy in options trading, offering a clear risk profile and prospects for income while keeping overall risk to a minimum.

Which option strategy is most profitable? ›

A Bull Call Spread is made by purchasing one call option and concurrently selling another call option with a lower cost and a higher strike price, both of which have the same expiration date. Furthermore, this is considered the best option selling strategy.

What is the success rate of the butterfly strategy? ›

It may generate a stable income and reduce the risks as much as possible compared with directional spreads, using very little capital. What is the success rate of the iron butterfly strategy? There is a 20% to 30% probability of an iron butterfly achieving any profit. It makes an entire profit only 23% of the time.

What option strategy is best for high volatility? ›

When you see options trading with high implied volatility levels, consider selling strategies. As option premiums become relatively expensive, they are less attractive to purchase and more desirable to sell. Such strategies include covered calls, naked puts, short straddles, and credit spreads.

What is golden butterfly option strategy? ›

The butterfly strategy is employed by options traders who anticipate minimal movement in the price of the underlying asset. In this strategy, traders buy and sell three options contracts simultaneously. All of them have different strike prices but the same expiration date. This is the option purchased at the money.

What is the broken heart butterfly strategy? ›

What's a broken wing butterfly call spread? A broken wing butterfly call spread is an omnidirectional options trading strategy where you buy an OTM call debit spread and finance it with a wider, further OTM call credit spread sharing the same short strike as the debit spread.

What is the bear butterfly strategy? ›

The bear butterfly spread should be considered when you expect that a security will fall in price within a certain period of time, and you have a good idea of what price it will fall to. It allows you to make a good return if your prediction is accurate, while only exposing you to a limited amount of risk.

What are the disadvantages of butterfly? ›

Butterflies and moths are not harmful but they are considered as pests by the farmers cause their caterpillars harm the crops and vegetation. Like the “cabbage white” butterfly caterpillars feed on radish, cauliflower and mustard plants. Similarly “lime swallow” or “swallowtail” is a pest to lime and orange grooves.

What are the disadvantages of the butterfly method? ›

Because a needle is left in the arm rather than a catheter or PICC line for the purpose of an infusion, a butterfly needle can damage a vein if the unit is suddenly yanked. Even if the right size needle is used, the needle can become blocked during treatment if not correctly placed.

When to use a butterfly spread? ›

Since the volatility in option prices tends to fall sharply after earnings reports, some traders will buy a butterfly spread immediately before the report. The potential profit is “high” in percentage terms and risk is limited to the cost of the position including commissions.

What is the 123 pattern strategy? ›

The 123-chart pattern is a three-wave formation, where every move reaches a pivot point. This is where the name of the pattern comes from, the 1-2-3 pivot points. 123 pattern works in both directions. In the first case, a bullish trend turns into a bearish one.

What is the most consistent option strategy? ›

The most successful options strategy for consistent income generation is the covered call strategy. An investor sells call options against shares of a stock already owned in their portfolio with covered calls. This allows them to collect premium income while holding the underlying investment.

What is the 1-2-3 strategy? ›

The classical approach to pattern 1-2-3 involves opening short positions at the break of the correctional low. The buyers who seriously expect the upward trend to be restored are most likely to have set their stop orders there. Their avalanche triggering allows you to see a sharp downward movement in the chart.

What are the 4 options strategies? ›

Here we look at four such strategies: long calls, long puts, covered calls, protective puts, and straddles. Options trading can be complex, so be sure to understand the risks and rewards involved before diving in.

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