The Hagerty Market Rating has finally stopped—or at least paused—its free fall. After a 10-month losing streak, the Rating increased a quarter of a point this month. This is the largest single-month increase in more than a year and a half, and the new rating of 66.1 is the highest since December 2023.
Despite the Hagerty Market Rating’s slight climb this month, itscorresponding open-ended index(which excludes the subjective expert sentiment poll) continues to fall, and provides another view of how much the market has swung. Since its peak in December 2022, the Hagerty Market Index has dropped nearly 21 points after decreasing 15 consecutive months.
The same four component metrics that moved up last month are up again this month. However, this time they were enough to sway the Market Rating in a positive direction.
With a surge in average sales price, the Private Sales Activity metric saw its largest single-month increase since late 2021, when the market was in a buying frenzy. For owners who kept their cars, they continue to be more likely to increase the insured value of their vehicles. The ratio of insured value increases to decreases for “broad market” vehicles (valued under $200k) has moved up two months in a row, following 14 months of continuous decreases. This ratio is still very much in a positive direction: For every call Hagerty gets to drop the insured value of a vehicle, 8 members call to increase their insured value. This ratio for vehicles valued over $200k didn’t fair as well, with its component metric falling 2.2 points—taking its biggest hit in over a year.
The overall economy continues to push off a recession. The macroeconomic indicators we track for the Market Rating have increased for the fourth month in a row. In similar fashion, optimism among our industry experts has increased to its highest point since last summer—quoting many positive sales results from the auctions in Florida last month.
Correspondingly, the raw numbers behind the Auction Median Sale Price metric finally stopped decreasing. However, due to inflation, this metric was in the red this month. Its 0-100 rating dropped 0.67 points to 38.66—its lowest value since this metric was added to the calculation in 2012.
In fact, all metrics we measure had to fight the highest monthly inflation (+0.4%) in the last six months, so the small increase in the Market Rating this month came as a surprise. Enough metrics were able to overcome these headwinds to achieve the overall uptick, but for some, inflation negated any progress they made. For example, the real value of the Blue Chip Index, which consists of the average #2 condition value of the Mercedes Gullwing and its 24 closest peers, rose 0.03% this month to $2,578,533. This minor increase was unable to outpace inflation, and the 0-100 rating for this metric dropped 0.09 points to its lowest value in ten years.
For the most part, the component metrics of the Market Rating are still falling. Only four of 14 saw an increase this month. It’s very likely that the uptick seen in the Market Rating this month will be short-lived, but only time will tell. We will continue to watch the market as the driving season approaches.
***
Check out theHagerty Media homepageso you don’t miss a single story, or better yet,bookmark it. To get our best stories delivered right to your inbox,subscribe to our newsletters.
Click below for more about
