This blog post is part of a special series based on the2024 Commodity Market Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report.Explore the full report here.
The World Bank’s metals and minerals price index rose 9 percent in April 2024 (m/m), following a relatively stable first quarter. Recent price increases reflected positive sentiment about stronger demand amid concerns of supply disruptions for some key metals. Base metal prices are expected to remain steady in 2024, before rising slightly in 2025. Additional stimulus for China’s property sector and supply disruptions are key upside risks to the price forecast.
Subdued demand is likely to weigh on metal prices. The protracted weakness in China’s real estate sector is expected to continue affecting demand for metals used in construction, especially iron ore, which is important for property development. However, robust industrial and infrastructure investment in China should help counterbalance the decline in demand for some metals, including copper. Demand outside of China is likely to remain subdued, as elevated interest rates continue to weigh on economic activity. Moreover, growing production of clean energy technologies should support demand for some metals, such as copper, tin, and nickel.
Supply constraints are likely to support prices for some base metals. Trade restrictions, such as the recent ban on Russian-origin metals at major commodity exchanges in the United States and the United Kingdom, could potentially tighten supplies for aluminum and copper. Tin supplies are expected to face constraints due to export restrictions introduced in February by Myanmar and ongoing licensing delays in Indonesia—both countries account for 40 percent of global tin production. Production cuts and disruptions in South America are anticipated to impact global copper supply growth this year. Similarly, major zinc producers are expected to reduce supplies, in response to earlier price weakness, with prices down almost 30 percent between March 2022 and April 2024. In contrast, global nickel production is projected to increase in 2024, following an 11 percent rise in 2023 (y/y). The continued ramp-up in nickel production, primarily from Indonesia, is driven by a surge in smelter investment, much of it from China, and bolstered by government incentives and an export ban on nickel ores.
The World Bank’s metal price index is expected to hold steady in 2024-25. In 2024, nickel, iron ore, and zinc prices are projected to post the most significant declines year-on-year, at 21%, 9%, and 6%, respectively. However, copper and tin prices are forecast to increase modestly by 5% and 4%, respectively, while aluminum is expected to see a slight rise of 2%. Looking ahead to 2025, aluminum and tin prices are predicted to increase further by 4%, while iron ore and lead prices are forecast to extend their declines. Meanwhile, nickel and zinc prices are expected to partially rebound, while copper prices stabilize.
The price outlook faces several risks.Additional stimulus measures to support China’s ailing property sector could support prices for metals used in construction. Environmental concerns that might delay the issuance of production and export licenses, along with conflicts, are key risks to raw materials supply for metals. Further trade restrictions, including export taxes or outright bans, could tighten supply. In contrast, a key downside risk to the price forecast is the possibility of slower-than-anticipated growth in major economies, such as China, which could further suppress industrial activity and demand for metals.
FAQs
The World Bank's metal price index is expected to hold steady in 2024-25. In 2024, nickel, iron ore, and zinc prices are projected to post the most significant declines year-on-year, at 21%, 9%, and 6%, respectively.
What is the price forecast for metals in 2024? ›
Gold prices are expected to climb to $2,500/oz by the end of 2024, according to J.P. Morgan Research estimates. This prediction assumes a Fed cutting cycle commencing in November 2024, pushing gold prices to new nominal highs.
What is the steel forecast for 2025? ›
The United States Steel stock prediction for 2025 is currently $ 51.42, assuming that United States Steel shares will continue growing at the average yearly rate as they did in the last 10 years.
What is the demand for metals in 2024? ›
The World Steel Association expects steel demand to increase 1.7% in 2024 to 1.79 billion mt, with further growth of 1.2% in 2025 to 1.8 billion mt, it said in its Short Range Outlook released in April. China's finished steel exports in March 2024 reached the highest level since July 2016, China's customs data showed.
Which metals are going up in price? ›
Prices index comparison of seven different precious metals 2019-2024. Gold and silver prices increased over the course of 2021, but these did not grow as fast as the prices of iridium and, especially, rhodium.
What is the trend in metal in 2024? ›
Cool silver tones and bold chrome—so hot right now. Melty metallics will make their way into the mainstream in 2024 as people trade in their trusty neutrals for something a bit more hardcore. Gen Z and Millennials are driving this heavy metal aesthetic.
Why is aluminum so expensive in 2024? ›
Coming off a year of lackluster demand and persistent uncertainty, US aluminum market participants are eying a rebound in 2024. Many expect to see higher premiums, believing the market has bottomed out over the near term, and are already hearing inquiries for tonnage in Q2-Q4, spurring some optimism.
What is the best metal to invest in for the future? ›
Gold often tops the list due to its status as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Silver, palladium, and platinum are also considered valuable investments, with demand driven by industries such as electric vehicles, solar panels, and jewelry manufacturing.
What metal will last 1,000 years? ›
Gold is clearly the most durable, but many objects fashioned from silver, copper, bronze, iron, lead, and tin have survived for several thousand years.
Will copper prices go up in 2024? ›
The copper market has experienced a notable uptrend in 2024, witnessing a surge of over 20% from mid-February until late May. But a few days after, copper prices dipped below $10,000 per metric ton amid growing global inventories and sluggish U.S. job openings data.
Our gold and silver forecast remains positive and reckon new records could be on the way for the former and fresh 2024 gains for the latter, following last week's big silver rally. Precious metals have found additional support from a weaker US dollar.
What metal will be most valuable? ›
Rhodium is the most valuable metal and exists within the platinum group of metals. It is used in jewelry for a final finish on white gold jewelry. It occurs in the very same ore in which gold and silver exist – only, in smaller quantities.
Are metal prices expected to rise? ›
Recent price increases reflected positive sentiment about stronger demand amid concerns of supply disruptions for some key metals. Base metal prices are expected to remain steady in 2024, before rising slightly in 2025.
What is the commodities outlook for 2024? ›
After three years of extreme volatility, commodities prices are set to broadly stabilise in 2024. However, adverse weather conditions, escalating geopolitical tensions and soaring shipping costs are among the risks to watch to commodity price forecasts.
What is the price of tin in 2024? ›
In June 2024, the average monthly price for tin worldwide stood at 32,032.7 nominal U.S. dollars per troy ounce.
Will prices increase in 2024? ›
We project overall PCE inflation to average 2.4% in 2024 and 1.8% over 2025 to 2028—just below the Fed's 2% target. Supply chain improvements have yet to be fully reflected in inflation numbers.
What is the forecast for metal prices? ›
Metal prices are expected to fall 5 percent in 2024, after declining nearly 10 percent in 2023 (y/y). They are projected to stabilize in 2025 (y/y). Key risks to these price predictions include weaker-than-expected demand from China and advanced economies or major disruptions to production.
