Market Volatility: Bank Worries Strike Again (2024)

Market Volatility

March 14, 2023 Schwab Center for Financial Research

What our experts think about today's market action.

Market Volatility: Bank Worries Strike Again (1)

U.S. stocks fell again Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching its lowest level in over four months, as concerns over the banking sector spread to Swiss lender Credit Suisse.

Shares of Credit Suisse sank to a record low after its largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, declined to offer more support to the troubled European bank after it reported problems with its financial reporting.1The prospect of another bank failure further riled investors already shaken by the past week's shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank and two other U.S. regional lenders. Crude oil futures dropped under $70 a barrel to a 15-month low amid escalating recession concerns.

"Credit Suisse's problems were today's trigger, but markets were already on edge due to the banking issues in the U.S.," says Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

The following is a round-up of today's market activity:

  • The S&P 500 Index was down 27.26 (0.7%) at 3891.93; the Dow Jones industrial average was down 280.83 (0.9%) at 31,874.57; the Nasdaq Composite was up 5.9 (0.05%) at 11,434.05, after falling as much as 1.7% earlier.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was down about 16 basis points at 3.473%.
  • Cboe's Volatility Index was up 2.41 at 26.14.

The Credit Suisse reports sent European bank stocks tumbling and overshadowed the release of weaker-than-expected data on U.S. producer prices and retail sales. Such data may have been welcome news to investors looking for reasons for the Federal Reserve to become less aggressive in its campaign against inflation.

Kathy says the banking system as a whole may not pose a systemic threat, but financial instability "is inherently deflationary/disinflationary because it causes banks to pull back on lending, which tightens financial conditions in turn."

"Consumer confidence tends to fall, leading to lower consumption," she adds. "And asset prices fall, leading businesses to pull back on investment."

Bond yields have fallen sharply over the past week amid growing expectations the Fed may be tempted to hit pause on further rate hikes after boosting its benchmark funds rate eight times in the past year. There's now a 46% probability the Fed won't raise rates following its March 21-22 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Yesterday, the chance of a quarter-percentage-point increase stood near 80%.

"Financial stability trumps inflation-fighting," says Cooper Howard, a director of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Central banks can't pursue their mandates without financial stability. We don't think it's reasonable for the Fed to hike rates in this environment. A pause seems most likely with the Fed/Treasury maneuvering to calm markets. The rate-hiking cycle may be over."

Wholesale price inflation cooler than expected, retail sales drop

Earlier Wednesday, the Labor Department reported the Producer Price Index (PPI)—a measure of supply conditions in the economy—fell 0.1% in February from a month earlier. (Economists polled by Bloomberg were expecting a 0.3% rise.) The department also lowered January's reading to a 0.3% increase. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged from the month before.

U.S. retail sales fell 0.4% in February from the month before, matching economists' forecasts, and down from January's upwardly revised 3.2% jump. Sales excluding automobiles dipped 0.1% from the previous month, in line with forecasts, though January's figure was adjusted to a 2.4% increase. Sales excluding-autos and gas were unchanged from the month before, versus estimates of a 0.2% decline.

1"Swiss Regulators Offer Financial Lifeline to Credit Suisse," The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2023.

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The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market or economic conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsem*nt of any political party.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Lower-rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

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Market Volatility: Bank Worries Strike Again (2024)

FAQs

Market Volatility: Bank Worries Strike Again? ›

What our experts think about today's market action. U.S. stocks fell again Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching its lowest level in over four months, as concerns over the banking sector spread to Swiss lender Credit Suisse.

What is causing the current market volatility? ›

Volatile markets are commonly attributed to things such as economic releases, company news, the opinion of well-known stock analysts or unexpected earnings results.

How do you respond to market volatility? ›

5 steps you can take during market volatility
  1. Establish or revisit your financial plan. ...
  2. Bolster your emergency fund. ...
  3. Reassess your risk tolerance level. ...
  4. Make sure your portfolio is properly diversified. ...
  5. Talk with your financial professional.

How do you survive market volatility? ›

Strategies for dealing with market volatility
  1. Invest regularly — in good and bad times. ...
  2. Avoid jumping in and out of the market. ...
  3. Maintain a diversified portfolio. ...
  4. Don't forget history. ...
  5. Talk with your financial professional.

What triggers a volatility halt? ›

Volatility halts are single stock circuit breaker halts that trigger 5-minute halts on fast price spikes or drops that exceed the acceptable trading price range (ATPR) for 15-seconds. The ATPR is calculated as the average price of the previous 5-minute trading period. Different stocks have different ATPR ranges.

Why is volatility increasing? ›

Volatility is how much and how quickly prices move over a given span of time. In the stock market, increased volatility is often a sign of fear and uncertainty among investors. This is why the VIX volatility index is sometimes called the “fear index.”

What are the key factors contributing to market volatility? ›

Increased volatility often happens during periods of economic stress, like a recession. It can be caused by economic or policy factors, including interest rate changes and inflation. Political instability can also cause market volatility, as can global events, like a pandemic or a war.

How do you make money off market volatility? ›

Derivative contracts can be used to build strategies to profit from volatility. Straddle and strangle options positions, volatility index options, and futures can be used to make a profit from volatility.

Is it good to trade when the market is volatile? ›

Volatility and Market Fluctuation

While a highly volatile stock may be a more anxiety-producing choice for this kind of strategy, a small amount of volatility can actually mean greater profits.

Where to put money in a volatile market? ›

Money that you'll need soon or that you can't afford to lose shouldn't be in the stock market—it's best invested in relatively stable assets, such as money market funds, certificates of deposit (CDs), or Treasury bills.

What is the best strategy for a volatile market? ›

Because volatile markets can lead to swings both upwards and downwards as prices gyrate, buying a straddle or a strangle are popular strategies. These both involve simultaneously buying a call and a put on the same underlying and for the same expiration.

What to invest in when market is volatile? ›

My advice is to take slow, steady and calculated risks. Don't buy a stock because it's cheap. Buy it because it is a good company. Or look to invest in the market as a whole with an index fund.

What moves the volatility market? ›

Another key driver of volatility is liquidity. The more traders and investors on the market, willing to buy and sell an asset, the less likely it is that a single transaction will cause a large price move. So, less liquid markets are usually more volatile as prices can change drastically.

What stock went up 1000 percent in a day? ›

Even so, the gains posted by Ambrx Biopharma (AMAM) in Friday's session are unusual and particularly eye-catching. The stock soared to the tune of a hardly believable 1007% after the company announced pleasing results from the mid-stage testing of its breast cancer drug ARX788.

How do you hedge against volatility? ›

Stocks have a tendency to be correlated; they generally move in the same direction, especially during times of higher volatility. Investors can hedge with put options on the indexes to minimize their risk. Bear put spreads are a possible strategy to minimize risk.

Why is the stock market fluctuating so much? ›

The law of supply and demand holds true as in any market. Some factors, such as the rate of inflation, have the power to move the market as a whole higher or lower. Other factors, such as corporate earnings, may move a single company or an industry sector.

What is causing bond market volatility? ›

One of the first things one learns about bonds is that their prices increase when interest rates decline and decrease when interest rates rise. A bond's volatility depends on two factors: its coupon rate and when it will be retired (at maturity or call date).

What is the main reason for volatility in exchange rates? ›

If people are willing to substitute between the domestic currency and other currencies, then demand for the domestic currency might be affected by money supply changes. As a result, substitutability between currencies constrains monetary policy action and increases exchange rate volatility.

Why is the market going down? ›

What makes the market go down? When demand for a stock exceeds supply, its price rises; when supply surpasses demand, the price falls. Factors like company earnings, economic data, and investor sentiment influence the supply and demand dynamics, impacting market movements.

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