Perhaps no investment opportunity has captured the minds of investors in recent years more than China. According to theWorld Bank, China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged almost 10% per year since 1978. The country is also home to about 17.72% of the world's population as of March 2024.
Inevitably,China will havehiccupsas it proceeds to lead the global growth of the economy. The trade wars between the U.S. and Chinahavecaused some uncertainty for the future of both countries. The World Bank notes that China will have to make big changes for its growth to be sustainable in the long term.
Before investing in China, investors should consider the pitfalls,understand the risks and rewards, focus on shareholder-friendly companies, and stick to investments they understand.
Key Takeaways
- China's urbanization, which is expected to continue past 2030, has led to its impressive economic growth.
- Some of the risks associated with investing in China include its communist structure, regulatory differences, and insider trading.
- Investment opportunities in China include U.S. corporations that have a presence in the country, mutual funds, and ETFs.
China and Urbanization
Urbanization has single-handedly led to China's impressiveeconomic growth, and the country will continue to urbanize. It has taken three decades of economic reform for China's population to move from being highly rural to more urban, and it's expected that China has another 20 years or more of urbanization ahead of it.
As people shift from living an agrarian lifestyle to an urbanized one, a lot has to happen. Cities need to be developed and built, which requires growth ininfrastructure, commerce, and other services.
Economies shift as individuals stop working simply to sustain themselves and, instead, begin tospecialize. That specializationrequires more education, and an educated society is typically a wealthier society. Asper capitawealth improves, the quality of life improves. During this process, businesses begin to sprout up, many of which create tremendous wealth for shareholders.
The China of just a few years ago is often compared to America right before theindustrial revolution. It's a fairly accurate comparison if you set aside some fundamental differences between the two.Growth in the 21st century will likely belong to China, just as growth in the 20th century belonged to the United States. That growth will likely create trillions of dollars in economic output in the near future, which is why many people continue toconsider investment opportunities in China.
$18.53 billion
China's estimated GDP in 2023 as per the International Monetary Fund.
Understanding the Risk and Reward
To make the most of any investment and related reward in China, any intelligent investor should have a clear understanding of the risks involved. A detailed analysis of all the potential risks of investing in China is well beyond the scope of this article, but understanding the basic layout provides a solid foundation. It's important tounderstand that risks should not deter investment. But as an investor, you should strive to understand the risks properly to account for them.
First and foremost, China is still a communist country. So, despite thefree-marketprinciples it has adopted, the rules that govern apublic companyin China are different than those in the U.S.
Chinese stocks trade on theShanghai Stock Exchange and theHong Kong Stock Exchange. Both exchanges have similarlisting requirementsto those of U.S. exchanges. Companies have to report financial statements regularly, have audits performed, and meet other requirements of size andcapitalization. Beyond that, rules and norms differ and this is where things get murky.
Not only do Chineseaccounting standardsdiffer from the U.S.generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), but regulatory differences abound. One common difference is the trading of company stock byinsiders.
Insider Trading
In the U.S.,insider trading is regulated intensively—the integrity of a market-based system rests on the premise that securities trading is not being manipulated by corporate insiders. In 2008, China banned trading by large shareholders in the month before companies release financial reports. However, academic studies suggest that insider trading is still an issue in the country.
A 2013 study in the International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting found that China's insider trading laws are still "catching up to the rest of the world." Academics continue to come to similar conclusions in recent years, alongside a consistent stream of news reports documenting tales of Chinese executives making suspiciously well-timed, lucrative stock transactions shortly before big share price moving events.
Chinese companies use Chinese Accounting Standards (CAS), also known as Chinese Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
A Mosaic of Options
Investors interested in owning a piece of the China investment storyhave an abundance ofinvestment products available. As expected, some options are much better than others, and some options should be avoided altogether or left to the mostsophisticated investors.
Investing Domestically
Many investors may be interested in sticking with what they know—U.S. companies growing their business in China. They can offer the best of both worlds: the advantage ofU.S.-regulated, GAAP-adhering public companies along with the profit growth potential coming from China.
A great example is Yum! Brands (YUM), owner of Pizza Hut, KFC, and Taco Bell. These chains have seen a surge of growth in China, and the country has increasingly been a source of profit for the company. Other large-cap companies that derive a significant portion of their profits from China include Nike (NKE), Starbucks (SBUX), andApple (AAPL).
Investors interested in owning a share of companies that list on Chinese exchanges should look to professionally managed funds that focus on China. Many asset managers that offer China-focused funds haveanalysts in China who visit and vet companies before investing in them. Many of these funds also hedge their yuan (or renminbi) exposure back to the U.S. dollar, reducing another source of risk for a U.S. investor. Some of these funds come with higher expense ratios than domestic equity funds—another thing to consider before jumping in.
Another consideration is an exchange-traded fund (ETF). There are plenty of options available that focus on Chinese equities, making it relatively easy to invest passively in a broad array of China-based corporations.
There are more than 40 China ETFs that trade in the United States. Together, they have assets under management (AUM) of $20.46 billion with an average expense ratio of 0.77%.
Direct Investments in China
Investing directly in Chinese companies can be challenging because the country restricts the flow of capital from foreign investors. Anyone who wants to make direct investments should consider focusing on blue chipcompanies in China. These companies are readily established, and they have deep financial operations and a biggershareholder base, thus offering investors greater safety in a region still characterized byuncertainty.
Many Chinese companies are also listed directly on U.S. stock exchanges. Many years ago, these companies were market darlings. In recent years, however, virtually all of them have come under intense scrutiny due to the inability of investors totrust their financial statements. Unable to regain investor confidence, many U.S.-listed Chinese companies'share prices decreasedsignificantly.
Still, this category provides disciplined investors with an opportunity to find some attractive opportunities that are easier to research and trade.Transparency is improving, too, now that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has the power to ban foreign companies from being listed in the U.S. if their auditors don't provide information when requested.
Outlook for China's Economy
So what's in store for China's economy? The country made strides to pull itself up from the COVID-19 pandemic and it continues to influence "other developing economies through trade, investment, and ideas."
Economists expect the country's deflation to subside in 2024 with the possibility of low inflation to carry through the country's economy over the following year. According to the World Bank, China's economy is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2024. Stability in domestic growth and exports, along with positive shifts in investor sentiment may lead to a boost in corporate profits and an uptick in the economy.
Among the risks China faces, analysts point to potential troubles in the real estate market, government debt (especially at the local level), and the continued decline of foreign direct investment (FDI).
Is China a Good Place to Invest?
That depends on the type of investor involved. There's no doubt that the potential is huge. China is home to about one-fifth of the world's population, and its economy is massive and keeps growing at a fast pace. A low correlation with other major world markets also makes it a great diversifier. However, there are concerns about China's mounting debt, the overall sustainability of its economic growth, and the country's political policies. These types of risks will prove off-putting to many.
Can Foreigners Invest in China?
China has sought to make it easier for foreign investors to invest in its companies. It's still a tricky process, though, and in most cases better to avoid. For most foreign investors, the best way to gain exposure to China is via a mutual fund or ETF, or by investing in a company in your country doing lots of business there.
What Is MSCI China?
MSCI China is an index created by Morgan Stanley that captures the performance of over 700 large and mid-cap companies across China.
The Bottom Line
Investing in China can be a very rewarding experience. But, there are certain risks that investors should know before they commit any capital. Government restrictions can make it difficult for foreign investors. And other things may prevent you from putting your money in the country, including geopolitical and economic risks. But, if you're able to sustain them, there are ways you can take advantage of China's growing economy, including stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds that trade at home. Be sure to speak to a financial professional to ensure your investments in China align with your goals.
