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One of the most outspoken Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls and investors laid out a price target for shares of the electric vehicle leader at the start of November.
Here’s what went into the price target and how much the stock could be worth in eight years if his goal is reached.
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What Happened: An investor in Tesla since 2014, Ron Baron has been one of the most outspoken Tesla bulls and believes shares will continue to appreciate in the years to come. Baron issued a price target that could share similarities to a famous bull case from Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood.
Baron said he believes Tesla can hit $500 to $600 per share by the year 2025 and the company could be worth $4.5 trillion in the next eight to 10 years.
“But that’s not including robots, that’s not including autonomous vehicles, that’s not including batteries,” Baron said in November 2022.
Baron’s stake in Tesla is worth around $4 billion across several Baron Capital funds. Baron’s cost basis is as low as $13 in several of the funds.
“I think in 2025 it (Tesla) will be $500 to $600 (per share). And in eight to ten years, we ought to be somewhere around $4.5 trillion.”
A market capitalization of $4.5 trillion would make Tesla more valuable than Appleand Saudi Aramco combined, a claim that Musk made in 2022.
Baron estimates that Tesla will sell around 20 million cars per year in the future, compared to the approximately one million the EV maker is expected to sell in 2022.
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“In 2030, if he does 20 million cars per year, and they’re $50,000 a car, that’s $1 trillion in revenue, and he gets operating profits at somewhere around 30%.”
A multiple of 15x operating profits of $300 billion gets Baron to a price target worth a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion.
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Investing $1,000 in Tesla Stock: Investors could benefit along the way if Baron is right about his price predictions.
A $1,000 investment in Tesla stock today could buy 5.26 shares, based on a price of $189.98 at the time of writing.
Hitting a price target of $500 would make the investment worth $2,630 in 2025. Hitting a price target of $600 in 2025 would make the investment worth $3,156.
With a goal of hitting a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion, shares could be worth significantly more in the next eight to 10 years. Taking $4.5 trillion divided by a current market capitalization of $595 billion for Tesla creates a multiple for shares of 7.56x.
The $1,000 investment in Tesla today would be worth $7,560 in 2030 if Baron’s price target is reached. This represents a gain of 756% over the next seven to nine years.
While all this is hypothetical, Baron has been one of the big believers in Tesla and is holding onto his shares despite massive profits and placing another bet for the long haul, which could tempt more investors to join him.
Read Next: Here's How Many Vehicles Tesla Has Delivered And Produced In Each Quarter Since 2019
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