Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Effect in Stocks - QuantPedia (2024)

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One market wisdom says – „Don’t fight the FED“, and academic research agrees with it. Academic studies show that the S&P 500 index average daily returns during Federal Open Market Committee meetings since 1980 (since FED started to be less secretive and more open about its plans and actions) are outstanding – more than five times greater than returns during other average days on the market. It means that more than 16% of average yearly returns for the equity index is realized during very few days.

Therefore it handsomely pays to be long during these few days. A simple market timing strategy that exploits this anomaly could be created. As it is only a few days in a year, this strategy could be easily leveraged to obtain higher returns.

Fundamental reason

FOMC meetings are mostly positive for the stock market. The FED’s purpose is to address banking panics, maintain the stability of the financial system, contain systemic risk in financial markets, and strengthen economic growth. Therefore it is highly unlikely that FOMC meetings’ conclusions would be highly negative for stocks. This is the main cause of a positive drift.

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Markets Traded

equities

Backtest period from source paper

1980-2000

Indicative Performance

6.19%

Notes to Confidence in Anomaly's Validity

Notes to Indicative Performance

per annum, return calculated for investor which is long stocks (average daily return 0.2734% – table 1) during FOMC meeting and invested in cash for remaining days (4% return on cash is expected)

Period of Rebalancing

Daily

Estimated Volatility

Notes to Period of Rebalancing

Notes to Estimated Volatility

not stated

Number of Traded Instruments

1

Maximum Drawdown

Notes to Number of Traded Instruments

Notes to Maximum drawdown

not stated

Complexity Evaluation

Simple strategy

Sharpe Ratio

Notes to Complexity Evaluation

Region

Global

Financial instruments

CFDs, ETFs, funds, futures

Simple trading strategy

The investor is invested in stocks during FOMC meetings (going long S&P 500 ETF, fund, future, or CFD on a close one day before the meeting and closing position on close after the meeting). Otherwise, he is invested in cash during the remaining days. The strategy has very low exposure to the stock market (8 days during the average year); therefore, it can be very easily leveraged to gain very significant returns.

Hedge for stocks during bear markets

No - The strategy is timing equity market but invests long-only into equity market factor (even that only for a short period of time); therefore is not suitable as a hedge/diversification during market/economic crises.

Source paper

Out-of-sample strategy's implementation/validation in QuantConnect's framework (chart+statistics+code)

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Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Effect in Stocks - QuantPedia (2024)

FAQs

How does FOMC meeting affect stocks? ›

FOMC meetings are mostly positive for the stock market. The FED's purpose is to address banking panics, maintain the stability of the financial system, contain systemic risk in financial markets, and strengthen economic growth.

How does the Federal Open Market Committee affect me? ›

The Federal Open Market Committee is the division of the Federal Reserve that sets monetary policy by managing open market operations. By doing this, the Fed influences the fed funds rate, which impacts other interest rates.

What was the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting? ›

Policy Announcement. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or the Committee) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50% for the eighth straight meeting.

How does the Federal Open Market Committee impact the economy through open market operations? ›

The FOMC primarily assists with setting monetary policy by conducting open market operations (OMOs), which involves the buying and selling of government securities (such as U.S. Treasury bonds) to influence the money supply and interest rates in the economy.

What happens to stock market if Fed raises rates? ›

As a general rule of thumb, when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it causes the stock market to go up; when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it causes the stock market to go down. But there is no guarantee as to how the market will react to any given interest rate change.

What happens when FOMC raises rates? ›

The Fed raises interest rates to slow the amount of money circulating through the economy and drive down aggregate demand. With higher interest rates, there will be lower demand for goods and services, and the prices for those goods and services should fall.

What does FOMC mean in trading? ›

The Federal Open Market Committee

The FOMC meets eight times a year to discuss monetary policy changes, review economic and financial conditions and assess price stability and employment output. These meetings take place every six weeks.

What is the difference between the Fed and the FOMC? ›

The FOMC is the group of Fed officials given the sole authority of voting on whether to raise, lower or maintain interest rates. The FOMC, specifically, is one of three branches within the Federal Reserve System (the FOMC, the board of governors and the 12 regional reserve banks).

What happens at FOMC meetings? ›

The FOMC is the Federal Reserve System's monetary policy-making arm, and its decisions have far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy. Meeting eight times a year, and occasionally more if the situation demands, the FOMC deliberates on the nation's interest rates and other financial policies.

How does FOMC affect gold? ›

FOMC and Gold

Gold is a non-yield-bearing asset, so it is sensitive to changes in interest rates. The yellow metal also serves as a safe-haven asset, so it reacts to signals sent by the FOMC members about the condition of the U.S. economy.

What is the primary purpose of the FOMC? ›

The FOMC makes all decisions about the “stance” of U.S. monetary policy to help move the economy toward the congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and price stability.

Who controls the Federal Open Market Committee? ›

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) comprises up to 12 voting members: all members of the Board of Governors (maximum of seven) the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. four of the 11 remaining Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

What is the Federal Open Market Committee How can they impact you directly? ›

A Federal Committee Setting the Nation's Monetary Policy

The FOMC's monetary policy actions influence interest rates and credit conditions, which can significantly impact financial conditions, including economic productivity and even spending and investment decisions by households, communities, and businesses.

How does open market operations affect investment and consumption? ›

The availability of more credit can stimulate spending and investment in the economy, leading to economic expansion. Expansionary Open Market Operations: When the Fed buys government securities, boosting the reserves of commercial banks, thereby leading to economic expansion.

What decisions does the Federal Open Market Committee make when it meets? ›

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

What to expect from the FOMC meeting? ›

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

What happens if the FOMC decides to increase the money supply? ›

The process works this way: If the Fed decides to increase the money supply, its open-market manager buys back treasury securities from private dealers, paying for them by simply crediting their bank accounts. It does not transfer any actual cash.

What does "fed" mean in the stock market? ›

The U.S. central banking system—the Federal Reserve, or the Fed—is the most powerful economic institution in the United States, and perhaps the world. Its core responsibilities include setting interest rates, managing the money supply, and regulating financial markets.

Does the Federal Reserve care about the stock market? ›

So in general terms and under normal circ*mstances, higher interest rates and/or reduced liquidity mean that stock prices will fall, with the opposite effect when rates are cut or liquidity is increased. However, the Fed typically signals its intentions ahead of time, and the stock market is always looking forward.

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